Here's a data point for you: "Only twice in 13 surveys over more than a year has either candidate held a lead exceeding the poll's margin of sampling error."
That's from Dan Balz and Jon Cohen's write-up of the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, which shows the presidential race tied, 47-47. "The stability persists despite the costliest blitz of early campaign advertising the country has ever seen," they note. It's also persisted despite bad jobs numbers, "the private sector is fine," a Supreme Court ruling on the health-care law, substantial media coverage of Romney's record at Bain and his unusually creative tax return, financial panic in Europe, and much more.
