One thing my presidential election model can't tell you is what sort of Congress the next president is likely to end up with. But we can speculate.
If Obama wins the election, the odds are that he's facing a Republican House, and perhaps even a Republican Senate. But it's not a sure thing. Speaker John Boehner said he thinks Republicans have a 1-in-3 chance of losing the House. InTrade puts it a smidge closer to 1-in-4. But that's assuming the full range of possible election outcomes. If the premise is that Obama is winning, Democrats have a slightly better chance of taking back the House, as that's a scenario in which the election is definitely breaking their way.
